Forecasting boundary layer cloud development and movement are major challenges to providing accurate short-term solar irradiance forecasts needed for solar power generation. The forecasting of boundary clouds in California are particularly challenging, because of the frequent presence of a cool marine layer over the Pacific Ocean and its complex diurnal behavior, including cycles of onshore movement and retreat. This paper will describe an assimilation method that modifies a model's initial moisture field through the use of infrared satellite data and surface-based cloud observations. Statistical relationships were developed between cloud observations and relative humidity profiles in the boundary layer in order to further improve the model's initial low-level moisture field. This approach is being tested with a series of California cases, and a sample case was examined in more detail.
展开▼
