Development and Application of a Holistic Quantitative Deterministic Technique for Risk Modelling (Quadrim) in Mine Valuation

摘要

In this paper a quantitative deterministic risk modelling approach (Quadrim) is introduced. Thernmathematical framework and equations for quantifying uncertainty within and aggregating acrossrnvalue chain nodes from error propagation techniques is proposed and discussed. A case study andrnworked examples, based on a hypothetical mine are then presented. This illustrates how uncertaintyrnfrom the mining and economic value chains can be handled in a typical net cash fl ow calculation, andrnhow this can be translated to a risk model. It is then illustrated that current valuation techniques dornnot just result in an information gap for decision makers. Traditional approaches such as discountedrncash fl ow (DCF) analysis and truck and shovel productivity analysis, which do not take into accountrnuncertainty in input values, can result in potential bias in estimates such as net present value (NPV)rnor equipment hours.