ASSIMILATION AND FORECASTING OF A SUPERCELL STORM: SIMULATED AND OBSERVED DATA EXPERIMENTS

摘要

We have performed assimilation and forecast experiments of a tornadic supercell storm using both simulated and real data. Preliminary results indicate that the 4DVAR initialization technique combined with single Dop-pler radar data is able to produce a reasonable forecast up to 2 hours. The sensitivity study demonstrates that in order to produce a skillful forecast it is important to retrieve both the dynamical and thermodynamical fields.