NEXT STEPS IN AUTOMATED THUNDERSTORM NOWCASTING: IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND FORECASTING STORM SEVERITY

摘要

The NCAR Automated Thunderstorm Nowcasting System (Autonowcaster or AN) and the NSSL Warning Decision Support System (WDSS) have been running operationally at the Sterling, VA Forecast Office that supports the Washington, D.C. area as part of the System for Convection Analysis and Nowcasting (SCAN) project. SCAN is a joint effort of the NWS, NCAR and NSSL to demonstrate new convection analysis and nowcasting tools in front of NWS forecasters. In this paper we report on enhancements to the AN resulting in improved thunderstorm forecasts and present conceptual ideas for combining WDSS severe storm attributes with the AN thunderstorm forecast features to produce storm severity forecasts with the ultimate goal of providing guidance to forecasters.