Development and propagation of severe thunderstorms in the Upper Danube catchment area: Towards an integrated nowcasting and forecasting system using real-time data and high-resolution simulations

摘要

Quickly developing and fast propagating thunderstorms are an important source of high impact weather (sudden occurrence of high precipitation rates and high wind speed) in central Europe. The region to the north of the Alps is particularly prone to such natural threats. Possibilities how to combine data from routine observations taken by geostationary satellites, a ground based radar network and lighting detection systems with high resolution forecast data for routine nowcasting purposes are exemplified for a typical summer situation of August 2004. The gradual development of the different technologies is sketched and a vision of how to combine the various data and forecasting sources is presented.