Technology forecasting of digital single-lens reflex camera market: The impact of segmentation in TFDEA

摘要

With the advancement of digital image technology, the big change in the camera market is that digital single-lens reflex cameras (DSLRs) have replaced film type single-lens reflex cameras, which have seen very little development lately. This advancement is reflected in some core technologies of DSLRs such as digital image sensors and electronic shutter mechanisms, which have allowed taking photographs even in the toughest conditions. Therefore, as a disruptive technology, the developments in DSLR technologies are worthy of notice. This paper utilizes technology forecast using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA), which is a quantitative forecasting method. In the study, we use input and output data collected from about a hundred DSLRs of the top five currently dominant brands such as Canon, Nikon, Sony, Pentax and Olympus. Final results show future DSLRs' capabilities and provide insight that TFDEA, as a forecasting method, can be applicable to determine market trends of consumer electronics as well as technologies. Furthermore, the results showed that market segmentation provided more reliable and accurate results with lower mean absolute deviation (MAD) value while all camera market approach provided less accurate results with a high standard deviation or MAD value.