Cyber Attacks Prediction Model Based on Bayesian Network

摘要

Cyber attacks prediction is an important part of risk management. Existing cyber attacks prediction methods did not fully consider the specific environment factors of the target network, which may make the results deviate from the true situation. In this paper, we propose a cyber attacks prediction model based on Bayesian network. We use attack graphs to represent all the vulnerabilities and possible attack paths. Then we capture the using environment factors using Bayesian network model. Cyber attacks predictions are performed on the constructed Bayesian network. Experimental analysis shows that our method gets more accurate results.