The Impact of Hedge Fund on the Crude Oil Market

摘要

Drastic fluctuations in the price of international crude oil since 2008 have discomforted investors. This paper attempts from a speculative way to find a clue to the causality. Identifying the significant impact of hedge fund through the methods of the T Index and the Granger Causality Test, it paper ascertains the usefulness of analysis of crude oil prices from the standpoint of speculation and manipulation. It suggests the investors should track closely the open positions of hedge funds to explain and predict the change of the crude oil price.