Modeling GM(1,1) based New Information Principle

摘要

Based on the priority principle of new information in grey system theory, the classicial GM(1,1) model is improved in this paper in which both the nth component and the n-fth component are considered priority, respectively.The nth component is more prior than the n-1 th component, and similarly, the 2th component is more prior than the 7th component, so new information priority principle grey model (NIGM( 1,1)) is established.The new method displays the law of white exponential law and the characteristics of monotonic increment consistency.Then two examples are given to illustrate that the new method can improve the forecast accuracy, the accumulation of NIGM(1,1) does not change the smooth degree of the raw data, and the accumulation of NIGM(1,1) pay more attention to the new information.