NEXT GENERATION DECISION MAKING

摘要

Decision-makers in the petroleum sector face an increasingly complex operational and businessrnenvironment, requiring rapid decisions to market changes without the benefit of complete data andrninformation. This environment means that, even with advanced optimization and simulation capabilities,rndecisions within a refining complex may not represent the best possible solution – decisions are drivenrnprimarily by time constraints and the need to react to market and operational imperatives. A timesensitive,rnhigh-risk decision made under changing conditions can be the wrong one both becausernit is an inherently difficult decision and because of the effects of stress on the decision-maker.rnBased on our deep experience providing advanced decision-support solutions to the U.S. military (tailoredrnfor in-battle conditions), SAIC broadened its solution development to address similar issues faced inrncomplex, process-based business environments. Applying these same principles to the refining industryrnsuggests that, to improve refining performance, we must optimize the performance of the decisionmakers.rnTo this end, SAIC has developed a real-time decision-centered environment (DCE) that provides critical,rndecision-dependent information and a framework for selecting the best possible option in changing andrncomplex operating conditions.rnThe DCE provides a basis for better decisions – it is not a system for automating decisions or anrnattempt to optimize the process. Rather, the system works by delivering information through anrnadvanced, dynamic, distributed, graphical interface dashboard. The application is distributed throughrnlaptops in the field, desktops, and centralized locations with high-end display screens. Through thisrninterface, decision-makers throughout the process can access and visualize data, leverage analysis andrnsimulation tools, and coordinate decisions among different sites and geographies.