Public Policy Evaluation Methods Used in CTI Evaluation——A Kind of Approach of CTI Evaluation Methods Study

摘要

This paper tries to introduce some principal methods and theories of public policy evaluation into CTI studies. It discusses three major issues: (1) two steps for evaluating one decision based on CTI: forecasting the impacts of the decision and then evaluating the importance of these impacts; (2) three forecasting methods in common use: extrapolation, using theoretical models and intuitive prediction; (3) four major evaluation criteria: technical feasibility, economic and financial possibility, political viability and administrative operability.