Time-Series Modeling for Evaluation of Water Conservation Programs in Dallas, Texas

摘要

The ARIMAX time-series model is used to identify the significant factors thatrnimpact water consumption and evaluate water conservation effectiveness in Dallas, Texas.rnThe results show that rainfall, the high temperature days and economic conditions havernstatistically significant effects on the consumption in addition to the conservation efforts.rnWater consumption increases as the local economy flourishes, rainfall decreases or thernnumber of high temperature days increase. Population and changes to rates do not impactrnconsumption in this study. To evaluate the citywide water conservation effectiveness, thernwater savings is estimated by comparing the actual consumption with the estimates made byrnthe model which assumes minimal conservation implementation. After the removal of thernrainfall, high temperature and economic effects, the total water savings due to thernconservation efforts in the City of Dallas is 70.5 billion gallons from FY2002 to FY2007.