Integrating Flow Assurance Into Risk Management of Deep Offshore FieldDevelopments

摘要

While designing Deep Offshore fields developments,rnseveral decisions have to be made : defining the systemrnarchitecture, selecting technologies, defining operating andrnmaintenance policies, etc. The objective is to ensurernproduction by mitigating risks while lowering costs andrnmaximising profits.rnHowever, risks are numerous (e.g. equipment failures orrnFlow Assurance issues) and strongly interact with each otherrnthus making the behaviour of the production process quiterncomplex. Hence, in order to make correct decisions, engineersrnneed a tool able to :rn? integrate various risks, especially those arising fromrnFlow Assurance issues,rn? simulate accurately the complex behaviour of thernsubsea production system all along the field lifecycle,rn? estimate the performances of the candidate designs inrnorder to choose the best one.rnThis paper describes a risk management methodologyrnbased on the general framework provided by Dependability.rnAfter a hazard identification step, a model is built based onrnhybrid interpreted stochastic Petri nets which allow to modelrncomplex interactive systems and mix both discrete (e.g.rnequipment failures) and continuous (e.g. progressiverndegradations such as corrosion or deposits) aspects of thernproduction process. The model provides fast computations ofrnthe availability and production availability of the system thusrngiving criteria for risk management.rnThe methodology was applied to a simplifiedrnrepresentative subsea production system and allowed tornquantify the influence of major risks in terms of economicrnconsequences and optimize a maintenance policy.