Dressing the Priestess: Preparation for and Results of a Delphi Study for a Residential New Construction Program

摘要

To meet regulatory needs, the Massachusetts utilities sponsoring the ENERGY STAR~(~R) homes program required a ten-year forecast of the market penetration of qualifying units. A Delphi analysis was conducted, with a panel comprising nine experts, including a representative of the state's building community, an economist who deals with the housing market, a state codes expert, and national experts on the ENERGY STAR program, as well as a program implementation contractor, and members of the program management committee. The panel considered three scenarios―a no-program base case, continuity of the current program design, and an expansion of the current program involving potential federally sponsored financial incentives―applied to the single-family market rate sector, the multifamily market rate sector, and the multifamily low-income sector. The results provided input to the benefit-cost models of the utilities and indicated which program designs experts envisioned as most likely to lead to sustainable increases in the market penetration of qualifying homes.