ALTERNATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR MODELING ACCIDENT PROGRESSION IN AEROSPACE APPLICATIONS

摘要

A prerequisite for continuous risk management is a comprehensive risk assessment upon which decisions are predicated. Although advanced risk assessment techniques have been developed for numerous industries, they do not always have direct aerospace applicability. One particularly important issue pertains to modeling accident progression. This paper examines two techniques for accident progression modeling, evaluates their relative utility with respect to aerospace applications, and furnishes some sample illustrations of the methodologies.