LIMITATIONS OF (AND OFF) THE SIA ROADMAP TRENDS

摘要

For four decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in its products. The principal categories of improvement trends are shown in Table 1, with examples of each. Most of these trends have been exponential, resulting principally from the industry's ability to exponentially decrease the minimum feature sizes used to fabricate integrated circuits. Of course, the most often frequently cited trend is in integration level, which is usually expressed as Moore's Law ("the number of components per chip doubles every 18 months"). The most significant trend for society is in decreasing cost/function, which has led to an enormous growth in the market for integrated circuits over the past forty years.