PROBABILISTIC ASPECTS OF FRAGMENTATION FAILURE MODELING FOR THE COLLISION OF AN ICE FLOE WITH A FIXED STRUCTURE

摘要

A model of fragmentation failure of an ice floe moving against a wide fixed structure is considered taking into account the probabilistic aspects of space nonhomogeneity of ice strength and variability of failure modes in the contact zone. It is assumed that the continuing failure of the approaching floe is a combination a) of a fragmentation process, when cracks of random length are appeared in normal direction to the structure face with random distances between them, and b) of individual deformation/failure processes, which take place in all fragments independently from each other, Due to random character of individual fragment loads, the global ice loading is also random being described by a stochastic process. Probabilistic characteristics of the global load on a structure are analyzed both analytically and numerically.