Estimating a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for China:a Bayesian Approach

摘要

This paper employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)model for China with two shocks: technology shock and monetary injection growth shock. The parameters of the model are estimated using the Bayesian procedure that accommodates prior uncertainty about their magnitudes; from these estimates, posterior distributions of the two shocks are obtained. With the reasonable number of Metropolis-Hastings simulations, the Monte Carlo Markov Chains algorithm converges and all measures of the parameter moments are relatively stable.