A probabilistic based hybrid planning method for long-term power system planning

摘要

It is known that Deterministic N-X criteria based power system planning can cause redundancy when satisfying reliability requirement. Instead, the probabilistic reliability criterion are a trade-off option between reliability and economy. Nevertheless, the combination of economy and reliability indices is difficult to be handled and there are no effective methods existing in current literature. In this paper, a new probabilistic criterion based hybrid multiple objectives optimization planning is proposed, which can offer a better trade-off between reliability and economy. In particular, this criterion integrates two objectives, i.e. reliability and economy indices, into a comprehensive indicator so as to find a better option. Most importantly, this innovative criterion can provide a way to find an optimal timing of construction.