COMPREHENSIVE DECISION FRAMEWORK COMBINING PRICE PREDICTION AND PRODUCTION PLANNING MODELS FOR STRATEGIC OPERATION OF A PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY

摘要

The present invention proposes a new decision-making framework for raw material and production planning in the petrochemical industry under price uncertainty conditions. The framework consists of three main decision-making models: price forecasting, paper trading, and production planning. Three predictive models, system dynamics, multiple linear regression, and artificial neural networks were investigated and compared to accurately predict the price of naphtha as a raw material as well as the final product. A new optimization model was then developed using mixed-integer linear programming techniques to establish an optimal operating strategy for a given inventory capacity. The framework guarantees maximum profitability by solving a series of petrochemical plant decision-making issues, such as the timing and quantity of naphtha purchase, final product sales, inventory management, financial risk management through paper trading, and operation strategy of related processes. In order to explain the capability of the model according to the present invention, the raw materials and production planning problems of an actual petrochemical plant producing six major products such as ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, toluene, and xylene were investigated.