Provided is a road surface profile estimating device and the like that determine a plurality of parameters included in a simulation model together with estimation of a road surface profile. A road surface profile estimating device 10 includes an acquisition unit 11 configured to acquire physical quantities representing a motion of a vehicle 30 that is traveling on a road surface, a prediction unit 12 configured to predict time evolution of state variables of the vehicle 30 on the basis of a simulation model M1 including a plurality of parameters P, a calculation unit 13 configured to calculate an observation value of the physical quantities from the state variables predicted by the prediction unit 12 on the basis of an observation model M2, an update unit 14 configured to update the state variables through data assimilation, an estimation unit 15 configured to estimate respective profiles of the road surface under a first condition and a second condition, and a determination unit 16 configured to determine the plurality of parameters such that an absolute value of an evaluation function for evaluating a difference between the profile of the road surface estimated under the first condition and the profile of the road surface estimated under the second condition is small.
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