The present invention provides a road surface profile estimating device, etc., that does estimation of a road surface profile together with determination of a plurality of parameters included in a simulation model. This road surface profile estimating device 10 comprises: an acquisition unit 11 that acquires a physical quantity representing the movement of a vehicle 30 traveling on a road surface; a prediction unit 12 that predicts the time development of a state variable of the vehicle 30 based on a simulation model M1 including the plurality of parameters P; a calculating unit 13 that calculates an observed value of the physical quantity from the state variable predicted by the prediction unit 12, based on an observation model M2; an updating unit 14 that updates the state variable using data assimilation; an estimating unit 15 that estimates the profile of the road surface respectively under a first condition and a second condition; and a determining unit 16 that determines the plurality of parameters so that the absolute value of an evaluation function for evaluating the difference between the road surface profile estimated under the first condition and the road surface profile estimated under the second condition is small.
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