METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF FATAL OUTCOME IN 14-DAY PERIOD OF ACUTE ISCHEMIC STROKE OF THE BRAIN

摘要

FIELD: medicine; neurology.;SUBSTANCE: invention relates to medicine, namely to neurology, it can be used to predict the probability of a fatal outcome in the 14-day period of an acute ischemic stroke of the brain. The serum concentration of the neuron-specific protein S100-β in the venous blood is determined on the 2nd day of ischemic stroke and the level of patient’s consciousness is evaluated according to the Glasgow coma scale (hereinafter – GCS). The probable prognosis of a fatal outcome is calculated by the formula Y = 1/(1 + e ^{- (16,703-1,395* GCS + 0.123* S100-β)}), where Y is the probability of a fatal outcome; e is a mathematical constant equal to 2.71828; GCS is the level of patient’s consciousness on the Glasgow coma scale, points; S100- β is serum concentration of neuron-specific protein, mcg/l. If the Y value is equal to or greater than 0.1, a high probability of a fatal outcome and an unfavorable prognosis for life are predicted. If the Y value is less than 0.1, it means a low probability of a fatal outcome and a favorable prognosis for life. ;EFFECT: method makes it possible to increase the accuracy of predicting a favorable and/or unfavorable outcome for life in the first 14 days of the acute period of ischemic stroke by determining clinical and laboratory markers of brain tissue damage: serum concentration of the neuron-specific protein S100-β and assessing the level of patient's consciousness on the Glasgow coma scale (GCS), creating a logistic regression model – a new simple and highly informative mathematical prognostic model that allows stratifying patients into a group with a high risk of a fatal outcome in the specified time period.;1 cl, 2 dwg, 3 tbl, 2 ex