Remaining life prediction system, remaining life prediction device, and remaining life prediction program

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To estimate the remaining life of an operating mechanism with high accuracy. SOLUTION: An evaluation information acquisition unit 130 for acquiring evaluation deterioration amount information generated by an operation of an operation mechanism and a first evaluation remaining life estimated based on a feature obtained from the operation of the operation mechanism, and learning of the same type as the operation mechanism. Hierarchical Bayes including learning deterioration amount information obtained from the learning motion mechanism, posterior distribution of common parameters common to the learning motion mechanism using the learning remaining life, and super-parameters showing variations in individual differences of each learning motion mechanism. Estimate the posterior distribution of the individual difference parameter peculiar to the operation mechanism using the evaluation deterioration amount information and the first evaluation remaining life, and from the posterior distribution of the common parameter and the posterior distribution of the individual difference parameter. A remaining life prediction device 109 including a remaining life deriving unit 140 that applies the obtained values to the first regression model and derives the second evaluation remaining life of the operation mechanism by inputting the evaluation deterioration amount information. [Selection diagram] Fig. 2