Methods are provided for identifying and quantifying information loss in a system due to uncertainty and analyzing the impact on the reliability of system performance. Models and methods join Fano's equality with the Data Processing Inequality in a Markovian channel construct in order to characterize information flow within a multi-component nonlinear system and allow the determination of risk and characterization of system performance upper bounds based on the information loss attributed to each component. The present disclosure additionally includes methods for estimating the sampling requirements and for relating sampling uncertainty to sensing uncertainty. The present disclosure further includes methods for determining the optimal design of components of a nonlinear system in order to minimize information loss, while maximizing information flow and mutual information.
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