Method for determining faulty operation status probabilities and probabilities of causes in technical and biological systems

摘要

The method has two objectives: 1. Calculation of the probabilities of faulty operating states. 2. Calculation of the probabilities that an arbitrary system status A, present with a probability of p /= 1, generates a system status B which can be considered to be the consequence. This also provides the possibility for calculating the probabilities of causal chains. The method can be applied to diagnostics in humans, animals, plants and in technical systems and to determining causal relationships, particularly in pharmacology and epidemiology. A causal network is built up from simple components, for individual network nodes of which the probabilities of occurrence are calculated taking into consideration all relevant influences, particularly of mutual interactions of the network nodes. The numerical probability values needed for the calculations are obtained from samples, which are collected more favourably in each case under the condition of the presence of a real system status and for a limited network environment.