METHOD AND DEVICE FOR QUANTITATIVELY PREDICTING DIRECTLY UNDER TYPE LARGE MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To enable the quantitative prediction of the occurrence of a large magnitude earthquake by continuously and automatically observing the underground stress condition, and converting a result of the observation to a degree of danger of an active fault for generating a large magnitude erathquake. ;SOLUTION: Observation stations 101 are symmetrically arranged in both sides of an active fault layer surface at a high degree of danger for generating an earthquake, and an observing probe 103 is suspended in an observation hole by a cable 104, and set at the depth of a stress observing window. This observing prove is fixed by an anchor of a mechanical unit 106 freely to be rotated in any direction. A loading unit, in while an automatic rotating mechanism 107 of the mechanical unit 106 can be rotated in any direction, is formed of one double-surface crush sub prove 108 and a set of three signal-surface crush sub proves 109A-109C, and operated by the loading oil pressure to be controlled by the station 101. On the basis of the relation between the deformation of diameter of these proves and the hydraulic loading, stress condition and rock mass characteristic of a measurement position are automatically and repeatedly observed for a long time. A central observation center converts the observation data to a degree of danger of an active fault for generating a large magnitude earthquake on the basis of a analysis model, and predicts the generation of earthquake at a quantitative high accuracy.;COPYRIGHT: (C)1997,JPO