SYSTEM AND METHOD OF EVALUATING DAMAGES DUE TO WIND BY TYPHOON COMPOSITED USING STOCHASTIC TECHNIQUE

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To accurately and precisely estimate wind damages by a future typhoon by using a stochastic technique. SOLUTION: On the basis of statistically analyzed data on the atmospheric pressure field of a past typhoon, a stochastic distribution model, which gives parameters used for deciding the atmospheric pressure field of the typhoon, is constructed, Monte Carlo simulation is executed, and many imaginary typhoons are composited stochastically. In the composited imaginary typhoons, a condition is changed, and wind damages which are estimated, regarding many cases which are not comparable with conventional cases, can be evaluated. A stochastic model, which can actually execute the evaluation of the wind damage, is constructed as a computer system. When the computer system is used, a wind disaster premium rate which is more rational than that in conventional cases is calculated, and a maximum estimable damage amount can be estimated with higher accuracy.