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METHOD AND SYSTEM TO VALUE PROJECTS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT POLITICAL RISKS

机译:评估项目的政治风险的方法和系统

摘要

A method and system which deal with the evaluation of the impact of political risk on forecast and value of a project. Key macro political risks are identified and quantified. Project specific political risk events that can result from changes in macro political uncertainties are identified and the probabilities quantified. The relationship of the macro political risks and project specific political risk events are defined. The key project economic parameters susceptible to political uncertainties are identified and the threshold or changes in economic parameters upon the occurrence of a risk event are quantified. The data is assembled into a computer system and a Monte Carlo analysis can be preformed to forecast the probable value of the project taking into account potential political risks.
机译:一种评估政治风险对项目的预测和价值的影响的方法和系统。确定和量化关键的宏观政治风险。确定了可能因宏观政治不确定性变化而导致的项目特定政治风险事件,并量化了概率。定义了宏观政治风险与项目特定政治风险事件之间的关系。确定容易受到政治不确定性影响的关键项目经济参数,并量化风险事件发生时的阈值或经济参数变化。数据被组装到计算机系统中,并且可以进行蒙特卡洛分析,以考虑潜在的政治风险来预测项目的可能价值。

著录项

  • 公开/公告号AU2003237466A1

    专利类型

  • 公开/公告日2004-01-23

    原文格式PDF

  • 申请/专利权人 CONOCOPHILLIPS COMPANY;

    申请/专利号AU20030237466

  • 发明设计人 HELEN ALISE EL MALLAKH;KAI ZHU;

    申请日2003-06-09

  • 分类号G06F17/60;

  • 国家 AU

  • 入库时间 2022-08-21 23:03:19

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