Ultra-short-time rainfall instantaneous prediction method and apparatus

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a rainfall estimation method that is used to determine the transition of rainfall for approximately one hour at the nearest place in a narrow region, for example, when the gate of a power dam is controlled, has high space-time resolution, and can reduce time required for estimation. SOLUTION: A two-dimensional correction value C is used, where the value C is obtained by comparing an observation value A of precipitation distribution by a synthetic radar being announced for each specific time by the Meteorological Agency with rainfall B being observed by a rain gauge being distributed at specific intervals in the movement path, and the observation value A of the precipitation distribution is converted into actual rainfall distribution D (=AC). Furthermore, according to an average movement vector M of the actual rainfall distribution obtained by performing pattern matching to the actual rainfall distribution D, an arrival position (x1, y1) in the estimation point of time of the actual rainfall distribution D at this stage is obtained, and a rainfall estimation value E of an estimation place in the estimation point of time is calculated according to the actual rainfall distribution D of the arrival position.