Method for computer-aided evaluation of the predictive model is performed, which is carried out by means of a prognosis of characteristic quantities of a technical system

摘要

In a method for computer-aided evaluation of the predictive model is performed, which is carried out by means of a prognosis of parameters (a (t)) of a technical system, first a temporal total interval (i) into a plurality of partial intervals (i₁, I₂, .., I), wherein in the time total interval (i) a plurality of parameters (a (t_i)) the technical system were determined. For each partial interval (i₁, I₂, .., I), a partial adaptation (p_i) of the predictive model is performed on the in the partial interval (i₁, I₂, .., I) determined characteristic quantities (a (t_i)) such a way that each partial interval (i₁, I₂, .., I) a partial adaptation (p_i) is associated with. Finally, for each partial adaptation (p_i) a prognosis accuracy (δ_i) determined. From the partial are selected, or a plurality of predetermined criteria. For this selected partial adaptations (p_i) , a stability time measure (l), depending on a stability, which essentially between the smallest and the largest partial interval end point of the the selected partial adaptations (p_i) associated partial intervals (i₁, I₂, .., I) is. Then, by means of the stability time measure (l) and the prognosis accuracy (δ_i) the selected partial adaptations (p_i) a prediction quality (m1, m2) is determined, which an assessment criterion for the quality of the prognosis carried out with the prognosis model represents.