METHOD FOR THE COMPUTER-ASSISTED EVALUATION OF THE PROGNOSIS OF CHARACTERISTIC VALUES OF A TECHNICAL SYSTEM, PERFORMED BY MEANS OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL

摘要

The invention relates to a method for the computer-assisted evaluation of the prognosis of characteristic values (A(t)) of a technical system, performed by means of a predictive model. According to said method, a total temporal interval (I) is first divided into a plurality of partial intervals (I1, I2, ...., I), a plurality of characteristic values (A(tSUBi/SUB)) of the technical system having been determined in the total temporal interval (I). For each partial interval (I1, I2, ...., I), a partial adaptation (PSUBi/SUB) of the predictive model is performed on the characteristic values (A(tSUBi/SUB)) determined in the partial interval (I1, I2, ...., I) in such a way that each partial interval (I1, I2, ...., I) is associated with a partial adaptation (PSUBi/SUB). A prognosis precision (I) is then determined for each partial adaptation (PSUBi/SUB). The partial adaptations fulfilling at least one pre-determined criterion are selected, and a temporal stability measure (L), depending on a stability interval extending essentially between the smallest and the largest partial interval end point of the partial intervals (I1, I2, ...., I) associated with the selected partial adaptations (PSUBi/SUB), is determined for the selected partial adaptations (PSUBi/SUB). A prognosis quality (M1; M2) is then determined by means of the temporal stability measure (L) and the prognosis precisions (i) of the selected partial adaptations (PSUBi/SUB), said prognosis quality representing an evaluation measure for the quality of the prognosis performed by means of the predictive model.