A method of estimating parameters of the epidemic, epizootic and epiphytic PROCESSES

摘要

1.method of measuring parameters of epidemic and epizootic and u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au0438u0445 processes by means of computer technology, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 the electron by the calculating machine (computer) u0432u0432u043eu0434u00a0u0442 u0438u043cu0435u044eu0449u0438u0435u0441u00a0 data and u0437u043du0430u043du0438u00a0 told about epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c process further with the help of com u043fu044cu044eu0442u0435u0440u0430 builds mathematical model study of epidemic.u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process, taking into account any of the following, or any combination of the following: (a) the characteristics of study process, b) particularly environmental factors in the process of u0432u043bu0438u00a0u043du0438u00a0,) data of process, mr.) imposed by the u0437u043du0430u043du0438u00a0 on the derived mathematical model u0430u043fu043fu0440u043eu043au0441u0438u043cu0438u0440u0443 by actual data on told epidemic.u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c process and then model the value study of epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process, cat u043eu0440u043eu0435 gives the best approximation of the mathematical model to the actual data, u00a0u0432u043bu00a0u0435u0442u0441u00a0 required evaluation parameter study of epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or ae u043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process.;2. method for p.1, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 that, in the approximation of actual data model using at least two parameters study of epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444 u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process, the model u0437u043du0430u0447u0435u043du0438u00a0 parameters study of epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process that provide the best p u0440u0438u0431u043bu0438u0436u0435u043du0438u0435 mathematical model to the actual data.u0432u043bu00a0u044eu0442u0441u00a0 expected estimates of parameters study of epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process.;3. way on any of the u043fu043f.1 and 2, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 because data on the epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c process implemented in a computer, receive the measurement of pa u0440u0430u043cu0435u0442u0440u0430 (parameters), all (of) u0441u043eu0441u0442u043eu00a0u043du0438u0435 at u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438 human, animal or plant.;4. method for p.3, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 so that any of the u0438u0437u043cu0435u0440u00a0u0435u043cu044bu0445 parameters is characterized by any of the following, or any combination of the following: (a) infected (hiv status) u043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438, b) infected (hiv status) u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438 in certain groups of u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438 (in particular, 1), (2) social, sexual, (3) a territorial, 4) professional, 5 ) age groups, 6 groups of sexual orientation(7) the other groups), the incidence of u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438), mr. u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438) incidence in certain groups of u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438 (in particular, 1), (2) social, sexual, (3) a territorial, 4) professional, 5) age groups, 6 groups of sexual orientation, 7) other groups), d) u043du0430u043fu0440u00a0u0436u0435u043du043du043eu0441u0442u044c immunity in u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438, (e) u043du0430u043fu0440u00a0u0436u0435u043du043du043eu0441u0442u044c immunity in u0442u0434u0435u043bu044cu043du044bu0445 groups u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438 (in particular, in 1) social,2) sexual, 3) professional, territorial, 4) 5) 6) groups of ages, sexual orientation, 7) other groups) were the risk factors u0432u043eu0437u043du0438u043au043du043eu0432u0435u043du0438u00a0 u0437u0430u0431u043eu043bu0435u0432u0430u043d u0438u00a0 in u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438, z) risk factors u0432u043eu0437u043du0438u043au043du043eu0432u0435u043du0438u00a0 u0437u0430u0431u043eu043bu0435u0432u0430u043du0438u00a0 in certain groups of u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438 (in particular, 1), (2) social, sexual, (3) a territorial, 4) professional of 5) age groups, 6 groups of sexual orientation(7) the other groups), and risk factors u0432u043eu0437u043du0438u043au043du043eu0432u0435u043du0438u00a0 u0437u0430u0431u043eu043bu0435u0432u0430u043du0438u00a0 in u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438 to) the risk factors u0432u043eu0437u043du0438u043au043du043eu0432u0435u043du0438u00a0 u0437u0430u0431u043eu043bu0435u0432u0430u043du0438u00a0 in certain groups of u043fu043eu043fu0443u043bu00a0u0446u0438u0438 (in particular, in 1) social, sexual, 2) 3) 4) territorial, professional, 5) age groups, 6 groups of sexual orientation, 7) of other groups).;5. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 3, so that the u0430u043fu043fu0440u043eu043au0441u0438u043cu0430u0446u0438u00a0 mathematical model and actual data, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process was u0434u0438u0442u0441u00a0 with sequential introduction of u0443u0441u043bu043eu0436u043du00a0u044eu0449u0438u0445 conditions.;6. way on any of the u043fu043f.1, 2, 4, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0, u0430u043fu043fu0440u043eu043au0441u0438u043cu0430u0446u0438u00a0 mathematical model and actual data, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e ol u043eu0446u0435u0441u0441u0430 u043fu0440u043eu0438u0437u0432u043eu0434u0438u0442u0441u00a0 with sequential introduction of u0443u0441u043bu043eu0436u043du00a0u044eu0449u0438u0445 conditions.;7. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 clause 5, so that the u0430u043fu043fu0440u043eu043au0441u0438u043cu0430u0446u0438u00a0 mathematical model and actual data, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process was u0434u0438u0442u0441u00a0 with sequential introduction of not less than two u0443u0441u043bu043eu0436u043du00a0u044eu0449u0438u0445 conditions.;8. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 p.6, so that u0430u043fu043fu0440u043eu043au0441u0438u043cu0430u0446u0438u00a0 mathematical model and actual data, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process was u0434u0438u0442u0441u00a0 with sequential introduction of not less than two u0443u0441u043bu043eu0436u043du00a0u044eu0449u0438u0445 conditions.;9. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 clause 5, so that the u0430u043fu043fu0440u043eu043au0441u0438u043cu0430u0446u0438u00a0 mathematical model and actual data, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process was u0434u0438u0442u0441u00a0 with sequential introduction of not less than three u0443u0441u043bu043eu0436u043du00a0u044eu0449u0438u0445 conditions.;10. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 p.6, so that u0430u043fu043fu0440u043eu043au0441u0438u043cu0430u0446u0438u00a0 mathematical model and actual data, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process was u0434u0438u0442u0441u00a0 with sequential introduction of not less than three u0443u0441u043bu043eu0436u043du00a0u044eu0449u0438u0445 conditions.;11. way on any of the u043fu043f.1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 that, in the approximation u043eu043fu0440u0435u0434u0435u043bu00a0u0435u0442u0441u00a0 which used u0443u0441u043bu043eu0436u043du00a0u044eu0449u0438u0445 conditions u00a0u0432u043bu00a0u044eu0442u0441u00a0 significant u043du0435u0441u0443u0449 u0435u0441u0442u0432u0435u043du043du044bu0435 u0443u0441u043bu043eu0432u0438u00a0 not u043fu0440u0438u043du0438u043cu0430u044eu0442u0441u00a0 into account in the approximation.;12. way on any of the u043fu043f.1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0, approximation of actual data models in the form of u0438u0442u0435u0440u0430u0446u0438u043eu043du043du043eu0439 u043fu0440u043eu0432u043eu0434u00a0u0442 procedure.;13. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 p.11, however, that approximation of actual data models in the form of u0438u0442u0435u0440u0430u0446u0438u043eu043du043du043eu0439 u043fu0440u043eu0432u043eu0434u00a0u0442 procedure.;14. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 p.12, however, that approximation of actual data models in the form of u0438u0442u0435u0440u0430u0446u0438u043eu043du043du043eu0439 u043fu0440u043eu0432u043eu0434u00a0u0442 procedure in at least two steps iteration.;15. way on any of the ap.1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 13, 14, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 what computer to complicate the model for the missing data and / or knowledge of any one or any combination of the following the following: (a) u043fu043eu043bu044cu0437u043eu0432u0430u0442u0435u043bu00a0, b) from the database of the epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c process, from knowledge of the epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c process, mr.) from another source of information.;16. way on any of the u043fu043f.1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 13, 14, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0, the computer sets the two or more alternative models and, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or an epiphyte u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process.;17. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 p.15, so that the computer brings two or more alternative models and, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu0433u043e process.;18. way on any of the ap.1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 13, 14, 17, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0, u043fu043eu043bu0443u0447u0430u0435u043cu0430u00a0 computer model u043fu0440u0435u0434u0441u0442u0430u0432u043bu00a0u0435u0442u0441u00a0 as any of the following, or any combination of the following: in the form of (a) tex the texts, (b) a u0437u043du0430u0447u0435u043du0438u00a0 parameter mathematical model, the numerical values of the parameter or parameters in the mathematical model, a schedule or u0433u0440u0430u0444u0438u043au043e in the mathematical modeld) functional u043fu0440u0435u0434u0441u0442u0430u0432u043bu0435u043du0438u00a0 (functions) or functional representations (functions) model.;19. method for p.u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 18, so that the representation of the model includes any of the following, or any combination of the following: (a) a description of the model, (b) a description of the selected u043fu0430u0440u0430u043cu0435u0442u0440u043e in which u043fu0440u043eu0438u0437u0432u043eu0434u0438u0442u0441u00a0 u0430u043fu043fu0440u043eu043au0441u0438u043cu0430u0446u0438u00a0,) u043fu0440u0438u043du00a0u0442u044bu0435 model u043fu0440u0435u0434u043fu043eu043bu043eu0436u0435u043du0438u00a0, g) recommendations on the use of u0440u0435u0448u0435u043du0438u00a0, d) the dynamics of u0437u0430u0431u043eu043bu0435u0432u0430u0435u043cu043e ste or infection.(e) the dynamics of disease or infection with different u0441u0446u0435u043du0430u0440u0438u00a0u0445 u0432u043eu0437u0434u0435u0439u0441u0442u0432u0438u00a0 on epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au0438u0439 or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au0438u0439 process f) u0432u044bu00a0u0432u043bu0435u043du043d s computer u0440u0430u0441u0445u043eu0436u0434u0435u043du0438u00a0 between any of the following, or between any combination of the following: (1) between these data, (2) between these u0437u043du0430u043du0438u00a0u043cu0438, 3) between the results u043cu043eu0434u0435u043bu0438u0440u043eu0432u0430u043du0438u00a0,(4) between the obtained in the simulation parameters of the process (5) between the parameters of model; 3) u0432u044bu00a0u0432u043bu0435u043du043du044bu0435 computer critical u0440u0430u0441u0445u043eu0436u0434u0435u043du0438u00a0 between love range of the next or between any combination of the following: (1) between these data, (2) between these u0437u043du0430u043du0438u00a0u043cu0438, 3) between the results of u043cu043eu0434u0435u043bu0438u0440u043eu0432u0430u043du0438u00a0, 4) between the p u043eu043bu0443u0447u0435u043du043du044bu043cu0438 in the simulation parameters of the process(5) between the parameters of the model.;20. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 p.18, so that the computer u0441u043eu0445u0440u0430u043du00a0u0435u0442 received representation of the model for any of the following, or any combination of the following: (a) u043eu043fu0435u0440u0430u0442u0438u0432u043d in the main memory device (operational u043fu0430u043cu00a0u0442u0438), b) in an external memory device (e.g., hard disk).;21. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 p.19, so that the computer u0441u043eu0445u0440u0430u043du00a0u0435u0442 presentation model in any of the following, or any combination of the following: (a) in the operational u0437u0430u043fu043eu043cu0438u043du0430 u044eu0449u0435u043c device (operational u043fu0430u043cu00a0u0442u0438), b) in an external memory device (e.g., hard disk).;22. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 p.18, however, that the representation of the model u0432u044bu0432u043eu0434u0438u0442u0441u00a0 at any of the following, or any combination of the following: (a) display, b) u043fu0435u0447u0430u0442u0430u044eu0449u0435u0435 u0443u0441u0442u0440u043eu0439u0441 young man. in the other output device.;23. way on any of the u043fu043f.19 - 21, u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0, however, that the representation of the model u0432u044bu0432u043eu0434u0438u0442u0441u00a0 at any of the following, or any combination of the following: (a) display, b) u043fu0435u0447u0430u0442u0430 target device in the other output device.;24. method for u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 p.18, so that the computer u043fu043eu043fu043eu043bu043du00a0u0435u0442 obtained by model reference database and / or knowledge of the epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c process.;25. way on any of the u043fu043f.19 u043eu0442u043bu0438u0447u0430u044eu0449u0438u0439u0441u00a0 22, so that the computer u043fu043eu043fu043eu043bu043du00a0u0435u0442 received the submission of the original model data base and / or the knowledge base from which u0438u043du0444u043eu0440u043cu0430u0446u0438u00a0 was obtained on the epidemic, u044du043fu0438u0437u043eu043eu0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c or u044du043fu0438u0444u0438u0442u0438u0447u0435u0441u043au043eu043c process to build a mathematical model.