System and Method For Eliciting Subjective Probabilities

摘要

A system and method for dynamically interacting with a human expert by means of a graphical user interface to elicit subjective probabilities that can subsequently be utilized in a probabilistic network. After the qualifications of an expert are obtained, the graphical user interface presents the expert with a series of questions. To assure that relatively accurate and consistent probabilities are subsequently provided by the expert, the graphical user interface incorporates numerous novel features that are designed to mitigate the effects of various biases that otherwise tend to skew the results acquired in traditional probability elicitation processes.