METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF VERTEBRAL FRACTURES IN WOMEN OF 60 YEARS AND OLDER

摘要

FIELD: medicine.;SUBSTANCE: invention refers to medicine, namely to therapy and rheumatology. The following risk factors are observed: body weight index (BWI) less than 20 kg/m² in 25 years and at the present time; low motion activity - hiking less than half an hour a day after 50 years and at the present time; early menopause before 45 years, previous fractures of forearm, shin and ribs; elementary education; stroke after 50 years; physical inability observed; insufficient dietary intake of calcium; climax before 45 years; number of deliveries; enteritis; gastritis. They are graded and evaluated, then predicting factors F₁ and F₂ define under formulae: F1= - 3.86 - 1.15*a₁ - 0.54*a₂ - 0.67a₃ + 0.60*a₄ -0.54*a₅ - 0.55*a₆ - 0.53*a₇ - 0.60*a₈ - 0.67*a₉ - 0.56*a₁₀ - 0.54*a₁₁ - 0.71*a₁₂ -0.57*a₁₃ + 0.48*a₁₄ - 0.37*a₁₅; F2= 0.70 + 0.44*a₁ + 0.21*a₂ + 0.25*a₃ - 0.22*a₄ + 0.20*a₅ + 0.21*a₆ + 0.22*a₇ + 0.23*a₈ + 0.26* a₉ + 0.20*a₁₀ + 0.20*a₁₁, + 0.28*a₁₂ + 0.22*a₁₃ - 0.19*a₁₄ + 0.13*a₁₅, respectively, where a_1-5 are gradation and numerical values of the risk factors: a_i is a body weight index less then 20 kg/m² at the present time: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₂ - hiking less than half an hour a day at the present time: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₃ - previous fractures of forearm: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₄ - insufficient dietary intake of calcium: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₅ - body weight index at 25 years less than 20 kg/m²: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₆ - previous fractures of ribs: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₇ - enteritis: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₈ - gastritis: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₉ - previous fractures of shin: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₁₀ - elementary education: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₁₁ - stroke after 50 years: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₁₂ - hiking less than half an hour a day after 50 years: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₁₃ - early menopause: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₁₄ - three and more deliveries: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a₁₅ - physical inability: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed. If F₁ is more than F₂, high risk is predicted, and is F₁ it less than F₂, low risk of potential vertebral fractures in the patient is predicted.;EFFECT: method provides possibility to estimate risk of development osteoporotic vertebral fractures with accuracy 94,4% and thereby allows improving effectiveness and commitment of the preventive and therapeutic actions in groups of the patients with high risk of potential fractures.;2 tbl, 2 ex