From manner and each caulking generation cause material group concentration and the reaction time which in the operational mannered null raw materials oil

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method for predicting the activity drop of a hydrogenating desulfurization catalyst by the use of a relevant formula concerning the rate of the activity drop based on the respective concentrations of the groups including bicyclic aromatics, tricyclic aromatics, tetracyclic and higher cyclic aromatics, hard-to-desulfurize sulfur compounds, the other sulfur compounds and nitrogen compounds classified from coke-forming source substances contained in a feedstock oil, so as to help planning the operation period for a hydrogenating desulfurizer and the mixing ratio for cracked oil and residual oil for the operation, and to provide a method for operating the hydrogenating desulfurizer based on the prediction method.;SOLUTION: This method for predicting the activity drop of a hydrogenating desulfurization catalyst by the use of the following activity drop prediction formula: 1n(kt/k0)=-(α1x1+α2 x2+......+αnXn) t (kt is reaction rate constant after t hour; k0 is the initial reaction rate constant; α1 to αn are the respective deterioration constants of coke-forming source substance groups; x1 to xn are the respective concentrations of the coke-forming source substance groups in a feedstock oil; and t is reaction time) based on the respective concentrations of the coke- forming source substance groups in the feedstock oil and the reaction time, and the other objective method for operating a hydrogenating desulfurizer by the use of the above prediction method are provided.;COPYRIGHT: (C)2002,JPO