Method of evaluating a production scheme of an underground reservoir, taking into account uncertainties

摘要

The method involves calculating precision degree of predictions of an approached analytic model i.e. response surface. An experimental design is constructed to select simulations to be realized for adjusting the model. The selected simulations are realized using an outflow simulator, and the model is adjusted for response simulated by the simulator using an approximation method to adjust responses predicted by the model with respect to the responses simulated by the simulator. The calculation of precision degree is restarted until the desired precision degree is attained. The construction of the design, the realization of simulations and the calculation of precision degree are performed, if the precision degree is higher than the desired prediction degree.