Method, system and apparatus for modeling production system network uncertainty

摘要

Embodiments of the present disclosure include a method that includes creating a deterministic model representing a production system. The model may include one or more inputs and parameters that are not deterministically known, and one or more outputs. A prior probability density function may be used to determine a prior uncertainty, and a measurement related to a first of the outputs may be obtained. The method may also include determining a posterior probability density function using the prior probability density function, the measurement, and a conditional probability density function. Embodiments of the present disclosure also include a computer-readable medium having a set of computer-readable instructions residing thereon that, when executed, perform acts comprising the foregoing method. Embodiments of the present disclosure further include a computing device that includes a memory, one or more processors operatively coupled to the memory, and functionality operable by the processors to perform the foregoing method.