SOLAR RADIATION AMOUNT PREDICTION METHOD, PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION OUTPUT PREDICTION METHOD AND SYSTEM

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a solar radiation amount prediction method with which, even when weather prediction data are given as discrete values, a prediction error of a solar radiation amount can be reduced, and a method and system for accurately calculating power generation output of photovoltaic power generation from the solar radiation amount determined by the method.;SOLUTION: A fine weather degree Ks is defined as a value, equal to or more than 0.0 and less than or equal to 1.0, representing a ratio of an actual solar radiation amount with respect to a theoretical maximum value of a solar radiation amount under fine weather, and a relation between the actually measured fine weather degree Ks and a weather is stored in storage means. Weather prediction data of a prediction target time zone are acquired via input means and on the basis of the relation between the fine weather degree Ks and the weather stored in the storage means, arithmetic means calculates the fine weather degree Ks corresponding to the weather prediction data. Finally, the arithmetic means multiplies the fine weather degree Ks that is obtained as a result of arithmetic operation, by the theoretical maximum value of the solar radiation amount relating to each time in the prediction target time zone.;COPYRIGHT: (C)2013,JPO&INPIT