Impacts of different radiation schemes on the prediction of solar radiation and photovoltaic power

摘要

The output power of a photovoltaic system largely depends on the amount of solar radiation that can be received by the photovoltaic panel,and the solar radiation energy reaching the ground is affected by the radiation transmission process.However,in engineering practice,numerical simulation prediction schemes tend to adopt a kind of radiation scheme,and the prediction of solar radiation and photovoltaic power cannot always meet the prediction accuracy.In this paper,NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data are used as the initial field,and a variety of radiation parameterization schemes are used to produce simulations for the Xinjiang area.Through analysis of examples,it is found that the simulation results differ greatly depending on the radiation parameterization scheme employed,with the maximum absolute error of the total radiation and the predicted power being 106.67 W m-2 and 3.5 MW,respectively.Meanwhile,the mean absolute percentage error of the total radiation ranges from 8.6％ to 17.3％,and that of the predicted power from 11.3％ to 20.2％.Having analyzed the simulation results of the different radiation parameterization schemes,we conclude that the RRTM/Dudhia and CAM (Community Atmospheric Model) schemes are the most appropriate when under clear-weather conditions.%光伏发电系统的输出功率很大程度上取决于光伏面板所能接收到的太阳辐射量,到达地面的太阳辐射能量又受辐射传输过程影响.然而在工程实践中,数值模拟预报方案往往只采用一种辐射方案,导致太能辐射量和光伏发电功率的预测常不能满足预测精度.本文利用NCEP-NCAR的再分析数据作为初始场,以新疆区域为例选用多种辐射参数化方案进行组合模拟.通过算例分析后发现:不同的辐射参数化方案模拟结果差别很大,总辐射和预测功率的绝对误差分别为106.67 W m2 and 3.5 MW.总辐射的平均绝对百分比误差范围为8.6％～17.3％,预测功率的平均绝对百分比误差范围为11.3％～20.2％.分析多种辐射参数化方案的模拟结果发现:RRTM/Dudhia和CAM辐射方案适合于晴天模拟