Methods and apparatus are disclosed to assess marketing concepts prior to market participation. An example method includes determining a value for an explanatory variable (EV) associated with a new commercial offering, identifying a plurality of existing commercial offerings based on a similarity metric associated with the new commercial offering, identifying a rank of the new commercial offering based on a comparison between the EV value associated with the new commercial offering and EV values associated with the plurality of existing commercial offerings, and generating the probability of success for the new commercial offering based on the rank of the new commercial offering and in-market performance metrics associated with the plurality of existing commercial offerings.
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