Participant utility extraction for prediction market based on region of difference between probability functions

摘要

The present disclosure provides a system that implements a prediction market, used for making forecasts and, more particularly, for extracting participant utility. One or more forecasts of a specific participant or subset of participants are taken, and a measure of divergence of these forecasts from a group as a whole (or for that matter, any group) is calculated. This divergence may then later be employed in the prediction market (e.g., for present or future forecasting). For example, if it is known that “sales managers” are consistently too liberal in forecasting product release dates than others within a company, this tendency may be compensated for or used in a variety of manners, such as automatically correcting predictions or forecasts for perceived error, automatically discarding or modifying predictions, or automatically generating “virtual” predictions for future events. Other actions may also be taken.