MEDIUM-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION METHOD

摘要

1. A method for forecasting earthquakes medium comprising recording seismic quakes network stations in a seismic zone, the determination of their energy and space-time parameters and the orientation of the seismic process with separation factors and migration earthquake focal prediction parameters according to their location and probable earthquake forces, wherein that on the basis of data received for a predetermined time interval selectively isolated active region fractures and the influence of the dynamic Ia determine the prevailing vector direction of events in the selected faults, conduct correlation analysis of the distribution of events by time and localization in the selected faults and areas of dynamic influence on the number and power class of the recorded seismic events in a certain area for a certain period of time, are assessing the intensity of activation fracture time quantitative index seismic aktivnostiξ = Σn (W, K, t) / L, (1) using a computer program, rD ξ- quantitative index seismic fau n - number of seismic events of the specified power classes in dynamic impact fracture; W - the width of the dynamic influence of the fau K - Energy class seismic event; t - predetermined time interval; L - length of the fracture, and based on the following design data with confidence intervals and graphic interpretation predict the location, time and range of the intensity of the expected seismic events in seismically active faults seismic