An exhaust control system comprising: a temperature sensor that measures an outlet temperature of an exhaust gas downstream of an emissions reduction device having catalyst bricks; a temperature estimation module that estimates a highest temperature of the emission reduction device; and an exhaust condition adjustment module that controls operation of the exhaust control system based on the highest temperature of the emission reduction device, the highest temperature being estimated based on: where Tb is the highest temperature, T2 is the outlet temperature of the exhaust gas, m is the exhaust mass flow rate, Mc is the catalyst bricks is, Cpb is a specific heat of the catalyst brick, Cp is a specific heat of exhaust gas, F is a heat transfer area between the exhaust gas and the emission reduction device, α is a heat transfer coefficient, and T0 is an ambient temperature.
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