Mathematical method for forecasting oilfield production

摘要

A system, method and computer readable medium capable of providing oil production forecasting is described herein. Measured oilfield production data 10A may be utilized to identify an exponential decline curve (19, fig 4) associated with the data and generate estimates for the mean, covariance and noise. Refined estimates for the mean and the covariance may be generated using a Bayesian probabilistic updating algorithm. The refined estimates may be utilized to generate an oilfield production forecast having a refined exponential decline curve 34 associated with the measured production data and one or more uncertainty designations shown as dashed curves 40 on either side of the refined exponential decline curve.