POWER GENERATION AMOUNT PREDICTION SYSTEM OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATOR, AND POWER GENERATION AMOUNT PREDICTION METHOD

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a power generation amount prediction system and a power generation amount prediction method of a photovoltaic power generator, capable of predicting the power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generator at any point, while taking account of the inclination of a photovoltaic power generation panel, and to supply system power efficiently and stably.SOLUTION: A system and method of predicting the power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generator by using an electronic calculator includes steps S1-S8 for calculating the ensemble prediction value of solar radiation intensity at a prediction point, and its spread, by calculating the optical thickness of the atmosphere from a physical weather model based on the weather forecasting data D1-D3 that are based on different calculation conditions, and then predicting the power generation amount by adding the prediction reliability or prediction confidence interval of the prediction solar radiation intensity.