PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method and a system for predicting arrival of long-period ground motion, which allows for highly accurately determining whether long-period ground motion capable of causing responses corresponding to a predetermined value or more at specific locations will arrive or not based on an early earthquake warning.;SOLUTION: From data on magnitudes, focal depths, and epicentral distances of past earthquakes and data on natural periods and response values observed during the earthquakes at a plurality of observation points having sedimentary layers whose thickness is close to that of sedimentary layers at predictive locations, a determination plane, which is a border plane between a first response value data group comprising response values above a predetermined value and a second response value data group comprising other response values and is defined by three-dimensional variables comprising magnitude, focal depth, and epicentral distance, is set up. When an earthquake occurs and if data on magnitude, focal depth, epicentral distance obtained from an early earthquake warning is on the first response data group side with respect to the determination plane, it is determined that long-period ground motion capable of causing responses above the predetermined value in the predictive locations will arrive.;COPYRIGHT: (C)2013,JPO&INPIT
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