SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR PHYSICALLY BASED FORECASTING OF CHANGMA PRECIPITATION

摘要

The present invention relates to an objective method for constructing a prediction model, which uses a statistical method using the sea surface temperature physically influencing rainy season precipitation and seasonally predicts the rainy season precipitation. The prediction model includes: a region selection unit which selects a region having a correlation coefficient with a rainy season index; an associative factor database construction unit which defines associative factors using a region, related rainy season precipitation and selected by the region selection unit and constructs a database; a preceding factor determination unit which finds preceding factor combination with a high prediction rate by cross-checking the defined associative factors with a forward step-by-step regression method; a prediction model construction unit which constructs a multiple regression prediction model by using the preceding factors determined by the preceding factor determination unit; and a physical process analysis unit which analyzes a physical process wherein each preceding factor influencing rainy season precipitation.