Study on Precipitation Forecast and Testing Methods of Numerical Forecast in Fuxin Area

摘要

This research uses Japan facsimile data in May-September of 2011-2015 in Fumeng and Zhangwu County of Fuxin, Liaoning, China as the site selection for high altitude NECV circulation background, using statistical and synoptic methods testing the combination of test and Analysis on Japanese numerical precipitation prediction and error. The prediction equation of cold vortex precipitation in the region is established by SPSS software. It is predicted whether the product predicts precipitation, water vapor condition and vertical velocity according to the Japanese numerical forecast. The results show that the fitting rate is 88% in the past 5 years, and the rate of cold vortex precipitation in the summer of 2016 is 89%.