Distribution system load prediction device and distribution system load prediction method

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To accurately predict a power load within any arbitrary distribution section of a distribution system.SOLUTION: A possession rate model storage part 110 stores a possession rate model for each machine type of a load device for each first house information section. An operation probability model storage part 120 stores an operation probability model for each machine type of the load device and for each time for each second house information section. A power consumption model storage part 130 stores a power consumption model per operating load device for each machine time. A device count estimation part 210 estimates the number of devices for each machine type for each first house information section on the basis of the possession rate model and house count associated information for each house information section. An operating device count prediction part 220 predicts an expected value of an operating device count using the number of devices for each machine type and the operation probability model.